Sporting CP vs Lask Linz

Wed 21 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 68%

Sporting CP

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 13pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.88 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Sporting CP last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 13, conceded 6)

6 Lask Linz last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 14, conceded 7)

7 H2H (3): Lask Linz lead 2-1 (0D), avg 3.7 goals, BTTS 67%

8 Sporting CP without: N. Santos, R. Zalazar (+4 more)

9 Lask Linz without: K. Cheikne, R. Harakate (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sporting CP with an estimated 68% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.88-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Sporting CP than the model is — the blend sits 13 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Sporting CP have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 6), while Lask Linz have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 14, conceding 7). Lask Linz lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of meetings. Sporting CP without: N. Santos, R. Zalazar (+4 more); Lask Linz without: K. Cheikne, R. Harakate (+8 more).