Calculate optimal bet size using the Kelly Criterion formula. Balance risk and reward mathematically.
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that calculates the optimal bet size to maximize long-term bankroll growth. It balances risk and reward by betting more when you have a bigger edge and less when the edge is small.
f = (bp - q) / b
Where: f = fraction of bankroll to bet, b = decimal odds - 1, p = your estimated win probability, q = 1 - p.
Example: 65% win probability, odds 2.00. f = (1.0 × 0.65 - 0.35) / 1.0 = 30%. Full Kelly is aggressive — most professionals use quarter Kelly (7.5%) for safety.
Use Scout AI's confidence percentage as your probability estimate. For a pick with 72% confidence at odds 1.75:
f = (0.75 × 0.72 - 0.28) / 0.75 = 34.7% (full Kelly).
Quarter Kelly = 8.7% of bankroll. This mathematical approach removes emotion from bet sizing.
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