Real Betis vs Feyenoord

Wed 21 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

HIGH 70%

Real Betis

Predicted Winner

7-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 9pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 7.21 - 0.96

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Real Betis last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 12, conceded 9)

6 Feyenoord last 5 away: 4W-0D-1L (scored 20, conceded 11)

7 H2H (1): Real Betis lead 1-0 (0D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 100%

8 Real Betis without: J. Firpo, C. Hernandez (+4 more)

9 Feyenoord without: T. Beelen, J. Bos (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Betis with an estimated 70% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (7.21-0.96 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Real Betis runs 9 points above the market's fair price. Real Betis have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 9), while Feyenoord have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 20, conceding 11). Real Betis lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings. Real Betis without: J. Firpo, C. Hernandez (+4 more); Feyenoord without: T. Beelen, J. Bos (+12 more).