Aston Villa vs Viking

Wed 21 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 69%

Aston Villa

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 10pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 7.21 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Aston Villa last 4 at home: 1W-1D-2L (scored 9, conceded 5)

6 Viking last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 10, conceded 5)

7 Aston Villa without: M. Cisse, B. Madjo (+10 more)

8 Viking without: A. Baertelsen, V. Berisha (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Aston Villa with an estimated 69% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (7.21-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Aston Villa than the model is — the blend sits 10 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Aston Villa have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 5), while Viking have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 5). Aston Villa without: M. Cisse, B. Madjo (+10 more); Viking without: A. Baertelsen, V. Berisha (+14 more).