Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig

Wed 21 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

HIGH 75%

Real Madrid

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.85 - 0.48

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Real Madrid last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 15, conceded 3)

5 RB Leipzig last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 9, conceded 15)

6 H2H (4): Real Madrid lead 2-1 (1D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Real Madrid without: R. Asencio, F. Mendy (+4 more)

8 RB Leipzig without: M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Madrid with an estimated 75% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.85-0.48 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Real Madrid have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 15, conceding 3), while RB Leipzig have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 15). Real Madrid lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Real Madrid without: R. Asencio, F. Mendy (+4 more); RB Leipzig without: M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo (+4 more).