Lille vs Galatasaray

Wed 21 Oct, 16:45

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 53%

Lille

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 9pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.88 - 1.44

4 Lille last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 8, conceded 5)

5 Galatasaray last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 8, conceded 12)

6 Lille without: H. Igamane, E. Mbappe (+8 more)

7 Galatasaray without: E. Aydin, K. Ayhan (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Lille with an estimated 53% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (2.88-1.44 goals). The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Lille runs 9 points above the market's fair price. Lille have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 5), while Galatasaray have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 12). Lille without: H. Igamane, E. Mbappe (+8 more); Galatasaray without: E. Aydin, K. Ayhan (+12 more).