Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Wed 21 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

Inter

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.44 - 1.92

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Inter last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 16, conceded 9)

6 Shakhtar Donetsk last 4 away: 3W-1D-0L (scored 9, conceded 2)

7 H2H (5): Inter lead 2-0 (3D), avg 1.4 goals, BTTS 0%

8 Inter without: C. Jones, L. Martinez (+6 more)

9 Shakhtar Donetsk without: I. Azarovi, Eguinaldo (+18 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Inter with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.44-1.92 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Shakhtar Donetsk, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Inter, so treat this one with extra caution. Inter lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 3 draws), averaging 1.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings. Inter have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 16, conceding 9), while Shakhtar Donetsk have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 2). Inter without: C. Jones, L. Martinez (+6 more); Shakhtar Donetsk without: I. Azarovi, Eguinaldo (+18 more).