SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05

Fri 30 Oct, 19:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

FSV Mainz 05

Predicted Winner

2-4

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.50 - 4.37

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 SV Elversberg last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 8, conceded 9)

6 FSV Mainz 05 last 5 away: 4W-0D-1L (scored 13, conceded 5)

7 H2H (2): FSV Mainz 05 lead 1-0 (1D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 50%

8 SV Elversberg without: T. Zimmerschied, N. Darvich (+10 more)

9 FSV Mainz 05 without: D. Kohr, Silas (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours FSV Mainz 05 with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.50-4.37 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours FSV Mainz 05, so treat this one with extra caution. SV Elversberg have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 8, conceding 9), while FSV Mainz 05 have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 13, conceding 5). FSV Mainz 05 lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. SV Elversberg without: T. Zimmerschied, N. Darvich (+10 more); FSV Mainz 05 without: D. Kohr, Silas (+6 more).