Villarreal vs Espanyol

Fri 30 Oct, 20:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 55%

Villarreal

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 12pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.40 - 1.20

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Villarreal last 4 at home: 2W-1D-1L (scored 7, conceded 4)

6 Espanyol last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 8, conceded 9)

7 Villarreal without: I. Akhomach, P. Gueye (+4 more)

8 Espanyol without: K. Garcia, Jofre (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Villarreal with an estimated 55% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.40-1.20 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Villarreal than the model is — the blend sits 12 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Villarreal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 7, conceding 4), while Espanyol have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 9). Villarreal without: I. Akhomach, P. Gueye (+4 more); Espanyol without: K. Garcia, Jofre (+2 more).