VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

Fri 23 Oct, 18:30

AI Prediction

HIGH 72%

VfB Stuttgart

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.61 - 0.18

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 VfB Stuttgart last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 12, conceded 3)

5 Borussia Mönchengladbach last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 11)

6 H2H (9): VfB Stuttgart lead 6-3 (0D), avg 3.4 goals, BTTS 67%

7 VfB Stuttgart without: J. Diehl, N. Nartey (+8 more)

8 Borussia Mönchengladbach without: F. Fleck, T. Kleindienst (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours VfB Stuttgart with an estimated 72% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.61-0.18 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. VfB Stuttgart lead the head-to-head 6-3 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of meetings. VfB Stuttgart have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 3), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 11). VfB Stuttgart without: J. Diehl, N. Nartey (+8 more); Borussia Mönchengladbach without: F. Fleck, T. Kleindienst (+14 more).