Alaves vs Malaga

Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 64%

Alaves

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.60 - 0.16

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Alaves last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 10, conceded 5)

5 Malaga last 4 away: 0W-1D-3L (scored 1, conceded 8)

6 H2H (6): Alaves lead 4-1 (1D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Alaves without: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez (+2 more)

8 Malaga without: J. Cruz, J. Lobete (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Alaves with an estimated 64% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.60-0.16 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Alaves lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Alaves have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 5), while Malaga have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 1, conceding 8). Alaves without: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez (+2 more); Malaga without: J. Cruz, J. Lobete (+8 more).