Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice

Fri 23 Oct, 18:45

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

Stade Brestois 29

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 13pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.06 - 0.29

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Stade Brestois 29 last 5 at home: 1W-3D-1L (scored 11, conceded 8)

6 Nice last 5 away: 0W-2D-3L (scored 1, conceded 6)

7 H2H (9): Nice lead 4-2 (3D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 22%

8 Stade Brestois 29 without: B. Chardonnet, R. Le Guen (+4 more)

9 Nice without: A. Abdi, L. Abergel (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Stade Brestois 29 with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.06-0.29 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Stade Brestois 29 runs 13 points above the market's fair price. Nice lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 22% of meetings. Stade Brestois 29 have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 8), while Nice have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 1, conceding 6). Stade Brestois 29 without: B. Chardonnet, R. Le Guen (+4 more); Nice without: A. Abdi, L. Abergel (+6 more).