SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

Sat 10 Oct, 13:30

FT 0-2

AI Prediction

LOW 41%

VfB Stuttgart

Predicted Winner

1-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-2

Predicted: 1-3. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.76 - 0.52

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 SC Paderborn 07 last 4 at home: 3W-0D-1L (scored 8, conceded 4)

6 VfB Stuttgart last 4 away: 1W-0D-3L (scored 6, conceded 8)

7 H2H (3): VfB Stuttgart lead 2-0 (1D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 67%

8 SC Paderborn 07 without: N. Awortwie-Grant, L. Eickel (+8 more)

9 VfB Stuttgart without: A. Al Dakhil, J. Diehl (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours VfB Stuttgart with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.76-0.52 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward SC Paderborn 07, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours VfB Stuttgart, so treat this one with extra caution. VfB Stuttgart lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of meetings. SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 8, conceding 4), while VfB Stuttgart have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 8). SC Paderborn 07 without: N. Awortwie-Grant, L. Eickel (+8 more); VfB Stuttgart without: A. Al Dakhil, J. Diehl (+8 more).