Inter vs Parma

Sat 10 Oct, 16:00

FT 3-0

AI Prediction

HIGH 74%

Inter

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-0

Predicted: 3-0. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 11pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 5.52 - 0.69

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Inter last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 15, conceded 6)

6 Parma last 5: 1W-1D-3L (scored 4, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Inter lead 7-0 (3D), avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Inter without: C. Jones, J. Stones (+2 more)

9 Parma without: P. Almqvist, A. Ndiaye (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Inter with an estimated 74% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (5.52-0.69 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Inter than the model is — the blend sits 11 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Inter lead the head-to-head 7-0 (with 3 draws), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Inter have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 15, conceding 6), while Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 (scoring 4, conceding 8). Inter without: C. Jones, J. Stones (+2 more); Parma without: P. Almqvist, A. Ndiaye (+6 more).