Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Sat 10 Oct, 19:00

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

HIGH 78%

Real Madrid

Predicted Winner

4-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 4-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.96 - 0.77

3 Real Madrid last 4 at home: 4W-0D-0L (scored 14, conceded 3)

4 Villarreal last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 9, conceded 9)

5 H2H (10): Real Madrid lead 6-2 (2D), avg 3.7 goals, BTTS 70%

6 Real Madrid without: R. Asencio, Eder Militao (+8 more)

7 Villarreal without: T. Buchanan, T. Buchanan

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Madrid with an estimated 78% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (3.96-0.77 goals). Real Madrid lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Real Madrid have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 14, conceding 3), while Villarreal have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 9). Real Madrid without: R. Asencio, Eder Militao (+8 more); Villarreal without: T. Buchanan, T. Buchanan.