1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

Sun 11 Oct, 13:30

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

LOW 46%

1. FC Köln

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 2-1. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 4.15 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 1. FC Köln last 4 at home: 2W-2D-0L (scored 8, conceded 6)

5 Borussia Mönchengladbach last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 9, conceded 9)

6 H2H (10): 1. FC Köln lead 4-3 (3D), avg 4.3 goals, BTTS 90%

7 1. FC Köln without: R. Ache, A. Castro-Montes (+6 more)

8 Borussia Mönchengladbach without: J. Castrop, F. Honorat (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours 1. FC Köln with an estimated 46% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.15-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. 1. FC Köln have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 8, conceding 6), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 9). 1. FC Köln lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 4.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 90% of meetings. 1. FC Köln without: R. Ache, A. Castro-Montes (+6 more); Borussia Mönchengladbach without: J. Castrop, F. Honorat (+10 more).