Rennes vs Auxerre

Sun 11 Oct, 15:15

FT 4-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 68%

Rennes

Predicted Winner

6-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-1

Predicted: 6-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 5.56 - 1.39

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Rennes last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 9, conceded 10)

5 Auxerre last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 9)

6 H2H (10): Rennes lead 4-2 (4D), avg 2.1 goals, BTTS 20%

7 Auxerre without: A. Diousse, S. Fofana (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Rennes with an estimated 68% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (5.56-1.39 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Rennes lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 4 draws), averaging 2.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. Rennes have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 10), while Auxerre have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 9). Auxerre without: A. Diousse, S. Fofana (+12 more).