Southampton vs Portsmouth

Sun 11 Oct, 11:00

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 61%

Southampton

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 3-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.63 - 0.94

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Southampton last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 16, conceded 8)

5 Portsmouth last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 5, conceded 6)

6 H2H (5): Southampton lead 1-0 (4D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 60%

7 Southampton without: C. Jander, C. Jander

8 Portsmouth without: L. Brooke-Smith, M. Kosznovszky (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Southampton with an estimated 61% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.63-0.94 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Southampton have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 16, conceding 8), while Portsmouth have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 6). Southampton lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 4 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Southampton without: C. Jander, C. Jander; Portsmouth without: L. Brooke-Smith, M. Kosznovszky (+14 more).