SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

Sun 11 Oct, 15:30

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 67%

SC Freiburg

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 2-1. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 9pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 4.66 - 0.39

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 SC Freiburg last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 20, conceded 4)

6 FC Schalke 04 last 5 away: 4W-0D-1L (scored 14, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): SC Freiburg lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 10%

8 SC Freiburg without: B. Ogbus, B. Yilmaz (+2 more)

9 FC Schalke 04 without: D. Ljubicic, D. Ljubicic

Detailed Analysis

The model favours SC Freiburg with an estimated 67% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.66-0.39 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for SC Freiburg runs 9 points above the market's fair price. SC Freiburg lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 10% of meetings. SC Freiburg have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 20, conceding 4), while FC Schalke 04 have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 14, conceding 8). SC Freiburg without: B. Ogbus, B. Yilmaz (+2 more); FC Schalke 04 without: D. Ljubicic, D. Ljubicic.