Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg

Sat 10 Oct, 13:30

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

LOW 48%

SV Elversberg

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 2-3. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.57 - 3.15

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Union Berlin last 5 at home: 1W-2D-2L (scored 11, conceded 14)

6 SV Elversberg last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 9, conceded 7)

7 Union Berlin without: A. Ilic, J. Juranovic (+6 more)

8 SV Elversberg without: F. Onyeka, L. Seifert (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours SV Elversberg with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.57-3.15 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Union Berlin, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours SV Elversberg, so treat this one with extra caution. Union Berlin have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 14), while SV Elversberg have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 7). Union Berlin without: A. Ilic, J. Juranovic (+6 more); SV Elversberg without: F. Onyeka, L. Seifert (+2 more).