FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen

Sat 10 Oct, 13:30

FT 3-4

AI Prediction

LOW 48%

Bayer Leverkusen

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-4

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.66 - 1.57

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 FSV Mainz 05 last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 8, conceded 4)

6 Bayer Leverkusen last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 11, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Bayer Leverkusen lead 6-2 (2D), avg 3.4 goals, BTTS 60%

8 FSV Mainz 05 without: D. Kohr, O. Ruoppi (+10 more)

9 Bayer Leverkusen without: M. Culbreath, G. Doue (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayer Leverkusen with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.66-1.57 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bayer Leverkusen, so treat this one with extra caution. Bayer Leverkusen lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 4), while Bayer Leverkusen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 8). FSV Mainz 05 without: D. Kohr, O. Ruoppi (+10 more); Bayer Leverkusen without: M. Culbreath, G. Doue (+6 more).