FC Augsburg vs Bayern München

Sat 10 Oct, 13:30

FT 2-2

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 57%

Bayern München

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-2

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.66 - 0.52

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 FC Augsburg last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 12, conceded 11)

6 Bayern München last 5 away: 4W-1D-0L (scored 12, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): Bayern München lead 8-2 (0D), avg 4.1 goals, BTTS 70%

8 FC Augsburg without: N. Banks, T. Breithaupt (+6 more)

9 Bayern München without: T. Buchmann, J. Musiala (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayern München with an estimated 57% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.66-0.52 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward a draw, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bayern München, so treat this one with extra caution. Bayern München lead the head-to-head 8-2 (with 0 draws), averaging 4.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. FC Augsburg have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 11), while Bayern München have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 12, conceding 5). FC Augsburg without: N. Banks, T. Breithaupt (+6 more); Bayern München without: T. Buchmann, J. Musiala (+2 more).