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Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

Fri 9 Oct, 18:30

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 64%

Borussia Dortmund

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.28 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Borussia Dortmund last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 11, conceded 6)

6 Werder Bremen last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 9, conceded 14)

7 H2H (10): Borussia Dortmund lead 7-1 (2D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Borussia Dortmund without: E. Can, G. Konstantelias (+12 more)

9 Werder Bremen without: F. Agu, S. Alvero (+14 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Borussia Dortmund with an estimated 64% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.28-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Borussia Dortmund than the model is — the blend sits 8 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Borussia Dortmund lead the head-to-head 7-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Borussia Dortmund have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 6), while Werder Bremen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 14). Borussia Dortmund without: E. Can, G. Konstantelias (+12 more); Werder Bremen without: F. Agu, S. Alvero (+14 more).