Elche vs Valencia

Sun 1 Nov, 17:30

AI Prediction

LOW 42%

Valencia

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.99 - 1.82

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Elche last 4 at home: 0W-1D-3L (scored 4, conceded 11)

6 Valencia last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Valencia lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Elche without: M. Aguado, M. Aguado

9 Valencia without: S. Canos, J. Copete (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Valencia with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.99-1.82 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Elche, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Valencia, so treat this one with extra caution. Valencia lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Elche have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 at home (scoring 4, conceding 11), while Valencia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 6). Elche without: M. Aguado, M. Aguado; Valencia without: S. Canos, J. Copete (+10 more).