Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna

Mon 2 Nov, 20:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

Deportivo La Coruna

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 10pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.71 - 0.80

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Deportivo La Coruna last 4 at home: 0W-2D-2L (scored 3, conceded 6)

6 Osasuna last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 10, conceded 16)

7 H2H (9): even, 3D, avg 2.1 goals, BTTS 44%

8 Deportivo La Coruna without: P. Aubameyang, M. Casado (+6 more)

9 Osasuna without: R. Del Castillo, J. Herrando (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Deportivo La Coruna with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.71-0.80 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Deportivo La Coruna runs 10 points above the market's fair price. Deportivo La Coruna have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 3, conceding 6), while Osasuna have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 16). The head-to-head is even (3 win each, 3 draws in their last 9), averaging 2.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 44% of meetings. Deportivo La Coruna without: P. Aubameyang, M. Casado (+6 more); Osasuna without: R. Del Castillo, J. Herrando (+4 more).