Atalanta vs Parma

Mon 2 Nov, 19:45

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 67%

Atalanta

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.14 - 0.51

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Atalanta last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 12, conceded 8)

5 Parma last 4 away: 0W-0D-4L (scored 2, conceded 9)

6 H2H (10): Atalanta lead 7-2 (1D), avg 4.2 goals, BTTS 70%

7 Atalanta without: R. Bellanova, G. Gaetano (+16 more)

8 Parma without: A. Bernabe, L. Valenti (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Atalanta with an estimated 67% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.14-0.51 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Atalanta lead the head-to-head 7-2 (with 1 draw), averaging 4.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Atalanta have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 8), while Parma have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 9). Atalanta without: R. Bellanova, G. Gaetano (+16 more); Parma without: A. Bernabe, L. Valenti (+2 more).