Sassuolo vs Fiorentina

Mon 2 Nov, 17:30

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Fiorentina

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.17 - 2.38

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Sassuolo last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 9, conceded 11)

6 Fiorentina last 4 away: 1W-0D-3L (scored 6, conceded 10)

7 H2H (10): Sassuolo lead 4-3 (3D), avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 80%

8 Sassuolo without: D. Boloca, I. Kone (+8 more)

9 Fiorentina without: A. Atta, F. Parisi (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Fiorentina with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.17-2.38 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Sassuolo, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Fiorentina, so treat this one with extra caution. Sassuolo have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 11), while Fiorentina have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 10). Sassuolo lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. Sassuolo without: D. Boloca, I. Kone (+8 more); Fiorentina without: A. Atta, F. Parisi (+8 more).