Sevilla vs Osasuna

Mon 26 Oct, 20:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

Sevilla

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.10 - 1.74

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Sevilla last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 6, conceded 10)

5 Osasuna last 4 away: 1W-0D-3L (scored 6, conceded 15)

6 H2H (10): Osasuna lead 5-1 (4D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 60%

7 Sevilla without: Marcao, M. Sierra (+2 more)

8 Osasuna without: A. Bonel, R. Del Castillo (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sevilla with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.10-1.74 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Osasuna lead the head-to-head 5-1 (with 4 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Sevilla have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 10), while Osasuna have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 15). Sevilla without: Marcao, M. Sierra (+2 more); Osasuna without: A. Bonel, R. Del Castillo (+6 more).