Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon

Mon 26 Oct, 19:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

Paris Saint Germain

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.89 - 1.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Paris Saint Germain last 4 at home: 3W-0D-1L (scored 14, conceded 6)

6 Lyon last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 3, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Paris Saint Germain lead 7-2 (1D), avg 3.4 goals, BTTS 80%

8 Paris Saint Germain without: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia (+8 more)

9 Lyon without: S. Kango, K. Nakamura (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Paris Saint Germain with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.89-1.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Lyon, while the blended pick still favours Paris Saint Germain, so treat this one with extra caution. Paris Saint Germain lead the head-to-head 7-2 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. Paris Saint Germain have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 14, conceding 6), while Lyon have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 6). Paris Saint Germain without: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia (+8 more); Lyon without: S. Kango, K. Nakamura (+10 more).