Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split

Mon 26 Oct, 17:00

AI Prediction

LOW 47%

HNK Hajduk Split

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.99 - 1.85

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Istra 1961 last 4 at home: 2W-1D-1L (scored 8, conceded 5)

6 HNK Hajduk Split last 5 away: 4W-0D-1L (scored 10, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): HNK Hajduk Split lead 3-2 (5D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 80%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours HNK Hajduk Split with an estimated 47% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.99-1.85 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Istra 1961, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours HNK Hajduk Split, so treat this one with extra caution. Istra 1961 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 8, conceding 5), while HNK Hajduk Split have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 5). HNK Hajduk Split lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 5 draws), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings.