⚽

Osasuna vs Racing Santander

Sun 18 Oct, 12:00

FT 2-0

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

Osasuna

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 2-0

Predicted: 2-1 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.32 - 0.50

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Osasuna last 5 at home: 1W-2D-2L (scored 2, conceded 5)

5 Racing Santander last 4 away: 0W-0D-4L (scored 4, conceded 16)

6 H2H (6): even, 0D, avg 3.3 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Osasuna without: A. Bonel, R. Del Castillo (+6 more)

8 Racing Santander without: S. Eriksson, S. Eriksson

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Osasuna with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.32-0.50 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Osasuna have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 2, conceding 5), while Racing Santander have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 16). The head-to-head is even (3 win each, 0 draws in their last 6), averaging 3.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Osasuna without: A. Bonel, R. Del Castillo (+6 more); Racing Santander without: S. Eriksson, S. Eriksson.