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Brighton vs Crystal Palace

Sun 18 Oct, 13:00

FT 5-0

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 67%

Brighton

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 5-0

Predicted: 2-1 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.44 - 0.23

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Brighton last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 16, conceded 1)

5 Crystal Palace last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 7)

6 H2H (10): Crystal Palace lead 3-2 (5D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 70%

7 Brighton without: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson (+14 more)

8 Crystal Palace without: A. Disasi, C. Riad (+10 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Brighton with an estimated 67% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.44-0.23 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Brighton have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 16, conceding 1), while Crystal Palace have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 7). Crystal Palace lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 5 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Brighton without: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson (+14 more); Crystal Palace without: A. Disasi, C. Riad (+10 more).