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Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Sun 18 Oct, 19:00

FT 4-1

🎯 AI Prediction

HIGH 72%

Real Madrid

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 4-1

Predicted: 3-1 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.69 - 0.66

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Real Madrid last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 15, conceded 3)

5 Sevilla last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 9, conceded 7)

6 H2H (10): Real Madrid lead 9-0 (1D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 60%

7 Real Madrid without: R. Asencio, Eder Militao (+8 more)

8 Sevilla without: J. Guridi, Marcao (+8 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Madrid with an estimated 72% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.69-0.66 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Real Madrid lead the head-to-head 9-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Real Madrid have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 15, conceding 3), while Sevilla have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 7). Real Madrid without: R. Asencio, Eder Militao (+8 more); Sevilla without: J. Guridi, Marcao (+8 more).