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Malaga vs Real Sociedad

Sun 18 Oct, 16:30

FT 2-5

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Real Sociedad

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 2-5

Predicted: 1-2 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.12 - 1.45

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Malaga last 5 at home: 0W-4D-1L (scored 5, conceded 7)

6 Real Sociedad last 4 away: 2W-1D-1L (scored 8, conceded 9)

7 H2H (10): Malaga lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.1 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Malaga without: J. Cruz, M. Diarra (+8 more)

9 Real Sociedad without: L. Beitia, P. Marin (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Sociedad with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.12-1.45 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Real Sociedad, so treat this one with extra caution. Malaga have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 7), while Real Sociedad have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 9). Malaga lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Malaga without: J. Cruz, M. Diarra (+8 more); Real Sociedad without: L. Beitia, P. Marin (+4 more).