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Celta Vigo vs Alaves

Sun 18 Oct, 14:15

FT 2-1

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 46%

Celta Vigo

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 1-0 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.16 - 0.55

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Celta Vigo last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 8, conceded 7)

5 Alaves last 4 away: 0W-3D-1L (scored 3, conceded 4)

6 H2H (10): Celta Vigo lead 6-2 (2D), avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 60%

7 Celta Vigo without: P. Duran, J. El Abdellaoui (+8 more)

8 Alaves without: F. Garces, A. Perez (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Celta Vigo with an estimated 46% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.16-0.55 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Celta Vigo lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Celta Vigo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 7), while Alaves have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 4). Celta Vigo without: P. Duran, J. El Abdellaoui (+8 more); Alaves without: F. Garces, A. Perez (+4 more).