Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna

Sun 11 Oct, 14:15

FT 3-2

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Real Sociedad

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.59 - 1.48

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Real Sociedad last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 3, conceded 7)

6 Deportivo La Coruna last 4 away: 1W-3D-0L (scored 7, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Real Sociedad lead 4-1 (5D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Real Sociedad without: J. Aramburu, A. Odriozola (+4 more)

9 Deportivo La Coruna without: P. Aubameyang, M. Casado (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Sociedad with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.59-1.48 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Deportivo La Coruna, while the blended pick still favours Real Sociedad, so treat this one with extra caution. Real Sociedad lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 5 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Real Sociedad have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 3, conceding 7), while Deportivo La Coruna have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 6). Real Sociedad without: J. Aramburu, A. Odriozola (+4 more); Deportivo La Coruna without: P. Aubameyang, M. Casado (+4 more).