Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club

Sat 10 Oct, 12:00

AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Athletic Club

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.32 - 0.88

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Rayo Vallecano last 3 at home: 2W-1D-0L (scored 6, conceded 4)

6 Athletic Club last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 4, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Athletic Club lead 7-1 (2D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Rayo Vallecano without: A. Batalla, A. Batalla

9 Athletic Club without: A. Djalo, U. Egiluz (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Athletic Club with an estimated 35% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.32-0.88 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Rayo Vallecano, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Athletic Club, so treat this one with extra caution. Athletic Club lead the head-to-head 7-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Rayo Vallecano have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 6, conceding 4), while Athletic Club have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 6). Rayo Vallecano without: A. Batalla, A. Batalla; Athletic Club without: A. Djalo, U. Egiluz (+6 more).