Racing Santander vs Valencia

Sun 11 Oct, 19:00

FT 2-2

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

Racing Santander

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 9pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.07 - 0.74

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Racing Santander last 5 at home: 3W-2D-0L (scored 12, conceded 7)

6 Valencia last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 3, conceded 5)

7 H2H (4): Valencia lead 2-0 (2D), avg 3.5 goals, BTTS 75%

8 Racing Santander without: S. Eriksson, S. Eriksson

9 Valencia without: S. Canos, D. Lopez (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Racing Santander with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.07-0.74 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Racing Santander runs 9 points above the market's fair price. Valencia lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 75% of meetings. Racing Santander have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 7), while Valencia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 5). Racing Santander without: S. Eriksson, S. Eriksson; Valencia without: S. Canos, D. Lopez (+8 more).