Levante vs Sevilla

Mon 12 Oct, 19:00

FT 3-3

AI Prediction

LOW 48%

Sevilla

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-3

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.53 - 3.28

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Levante last 4 at home: 3W-0D-1L (scored 10, conceded 7)

6 Sevilla last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 7, conceded 4)

7 H2H (10): Sevilla lead 7-2 (1D), avg 3.2 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Levante without: K. Etta Eyong, A. Primo (+4 more)

9 Sevilla without: N. Guillen, Marcao (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sevilla with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.53-3.28 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Sevilla, so treat this one with extra caution. Sevilla lead the head-to-head 7-2 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Levante have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 10, conceding 7), while Sevilla have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 4). Levante without: K. Etta Eyong, A. Primo (+4 more); Sevilla without: N. Guillen, Marcao (+6 more).