Atalanta vs Venezia

Mon 12 Oct, 16:30

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 62%

Atalanta

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.35 - 0.70

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Atalanta last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 5, conceded 3)

5 Venezia last 5 away: 0W-1D-4L (scored 8, conceded 13)

6 H2H (5): Atalanta lead 4-0 (1D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 20%

7 Atalanta without: I. Hien, O. Kossounou (+6 more)

8 Venezia without: A. Adorante, A. Bella-Kotchap (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Atalanta with an estimated 62% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.35-0.70 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Atalanta lead the head-to-head 4-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. Atalanta have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 3), while Venezia have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 13). Atalanta without: I. Hien, O. Kossounou (+6 more); Venezia without: A. Adorante, A. Bella-Kotchap (+10 more).