Torino vs Udinese

Mon 12 Oct, 18:45

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

Udinese

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.23 - 4.23

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Torino last 5 at home: 1W-0D-4L (scored 2, conceded 6)

6 Udinese last 3 away: 1W-1D-1L (scored 7, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Torino lead 5-3 (2D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Torino without: F. Israel, P. Pellegri (+6 more)

9 Udinese without: I. Gueye, J. Piotrowski (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Udinese with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.23-4.23 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Torino, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Udinese, so treat this one with extra caution. Torino lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Torino have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 at home (scoring 2, conceding 6), while Udinese have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 8). Torino without: F. Israel, P. Pellegri (+6 more); Udinese without: I. Gueye, J. Piotrowski (+4 more).