Elche vs Celta Vigo

Sun 11 Oct, 12:00

FT 0-0

AI Prediction

LOW 41%

Celta Vigo

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-0

Predicted: 0-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.30 - 0.81

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Elche last 5 at home: 0W-2D-3L (scored 8, conceded 15)

6 Celta Vigo last 5 away: 0W-4D-1L (scored 2, conceded 3)

7 H2H (10): Celta Vigo lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Elche without: F. Redondo Solari, Y. Santiago (+2 more)

9 Celta Vigo without: A. Antanon, J. El Abdellaoui (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Celta Vigo with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.30-0.81 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Celta Vigo, so treat this one with extra caution. Celta Vigo lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Elche have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 15), while Celta Vigo have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 3). Elche without: F. Redondo Solari, Y. Santiago (+2 more); Celta Vigo without: A. Antanon, J. El Abdellaoui (+6 more).