Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Sat 10 Oct, 14:15

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 41%

Atletico Madrid

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 1-2. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.98 - 0.99

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Alaves last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 12, conceded 3)

6 Atletico Madrid last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Atletico Madrid lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.1 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Alaves without: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez (+2 more)

9 Atletico Madrid without: R. Mendoza, O. Vargas (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Atletico Madrid with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.98-0.99 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Alaves, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Atletico Madrid, so treat this one with extra caution. Atletico Madrid lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Alaves have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 3), while Atletico Madrid have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 7). Alaves without: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez (+2 more); Atletico Madrid without: R. Mendoza, O. Vargas (+2 more).