Bolton vs Middlesbrough

Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 53%

Middlesbrough

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.17 - 1.56

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bolton last 4 at home: 1W-0D-3L (scored 4, conceded 6)

6 Middlesbrough last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Middlesbrough lead 10-0 (0D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 30%

8 Bolton without: C. Forino-Joseph, C. Forino-Joseph

9 Middlesbrough without: A. Jones, R. Pukstas (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Middlesbrough with an estimated 53% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.17-1.56 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Middlesbrough, so treat this one with extra caution. Middlesbrough lead the head-to-head 10-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 30% of meetings. Bolton have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 at home (scoring 4, conceding 6), while Middlesbrough have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 8). Bolton without: C. Forino-Joseph, C. Forino-Joseph; Middlesbrough without: A. Jones, R. Pukstas (+4 more).