Burnley vs Wolves

Fri 16 Oct, 19:00

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 39%

Wolves

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 2-3. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.53 - 1.75

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Burnley last 4 at home: 0W-3D-1L (scored 5, conceded 6)

6 Wolves last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Burnley lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Burnley without: E. Agyei, A. Ahmedhodzic (+24 more)

9 Wolves without: A. Armstrong, R. Jimenez (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Wolves with an estimated 39% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.53-1.75 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward Burnley, while the blended pick still favours Wolves, so treat this one with extra caution. Burnley have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 5, conceding 6), while Wolves have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 8). Burnley lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Burnley without: E. Agyei, A. Ahmedhodzic (+24 more); Wolves without: A. Armstrong, R. Jimenez (+12 more).