Swansea vs Norwich

Sat 10 Oct, 11:30

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

Swansea

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 2-1. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 11pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.93 - 0.26

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Swansea last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 5, conceded 2)

6 Norwich last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 8, conceded 12)

7 H2H (10): Swansea lead 5-3 (2D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Swansea without: C. Burgess, S. Eustaquio (+6 more)

9 Norwich without: A. Ahmed, B. Chrisene (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Swansea with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.93-0.26 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Swansea runs 11 points above the market's fair price. Swansea lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Swansea have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 2), while Norwich have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 12). Swansea without: C. Burgess, S. Eustaquio (+6 more); Norwich without: A. Ahmed, B. Chrisene (+12 more).