Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln

Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

FT 3-0

AI Prediction

LOW 39%

Lincoln

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-0

Predicted: 0-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.34 - 1.03

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Sheffield Utd last 4 at home: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 6)

6 Lincoln last 5 away: 4W-0D-1L (scored 7, conceded 5)

7 H2H (1): even, 1D, avg 0.0 goals, BTTS 0%

8 Sheffield Utd without: T. Campbell, H. Burrows (+8 more)

9 Lincoln without: T. Darikwa, M. Melia (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Lincoln with an estimated 39% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.34-1.03 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Sheffield Utd, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Lincoln, so treat this one with extra caution. Sheffield Utd have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 4, conceding 6), while Lincoln have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 5). All 1 of their last meetings have ended in a draw, averaging 0.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings. Sheffield Utd without: T. Campbell, H. Burrows (+8 more); Lincoln without: T. Darikwa, M. Melia (+4 more).