Preston vs Millwall

Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Millwall

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 2-3. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.72 - 2.06

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Preston last 5 at home: 1W-0D-4L (scored 4, conceded 12)

6 Millwall last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 10)

7 H2H (10): Millwall lead 4-0 (6D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Preston without: A. McCann, B. Potts (+4 more)

9 Millwall without: J. Coburn, T. Crama (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Millwall with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.72-2.06 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Millwall, so treat this one with extra caution. Millwall lead the head-to-head 4-0 (with 6 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Preston have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 at home (scoring 4, conceding 12), while Millwall have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 10). Preston without: A. McCann, B. Potts (+4 more); Millwall without: J. Coburn, T. Crama (+12 more).