Derby vs Wrexham

Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

FT 1-1

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Wrexham

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-1

Predicted: 0-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.90 - 1.37

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Derby last 5 at home: 0W-1D-4L (scored 4, conceded 10)

6 Wrexham last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 4, conceded 8)

7 H2H (2): Wrexham lead 1-0 (1D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 100%

8 Derby without: P. Agyemang, M. Clarke (+14 more)

9 Wrexham without: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Wrexham with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.90-1.37 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Wrexham, so treat this one with extra caution. Derby have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 at home (scoring 4, conceding 10), while Wrexham have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 8). Wrexham lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings. Derby without: P. Agyemang, M. Clarke (+14 more); Wrexham without: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace (+10 more).