Charlton vs Bristol City

Sat 10 Oct, 11:30

FT 1-1

AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Draw

Predicted Winner

1-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-1

Predicted: 1-1. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.03 - 0.34

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Charlton last 4 at home: 2W-2D-0L (scored 3, conceded 1)

6 Bristol City last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 10, conceded 8)

7 H2H (8): even, 2D, avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 63%

8 Charlton without: C. Sichenje, N. Chalobah (+10 more)

9 Bristol City without: R. Dickie, N. Eile (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Draw with an estimated 34% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.03-0.34 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Bristol City, the Poisson model leans toward Charlton, while the blended pick still favours Draw, so treat this one with extra caution. Charlton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 3, conceding 1), while Bristol City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 8). The head-to-head is even (3 win each, 2 draws in their last 8), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 63% of meetings. Charlton without: C. Sichenje, N. Chalobah (+10 more); Bristol City without: R. Dickie, N. Eile (+4 more).